Sars Data

Ya remember Sars, it was that thing that came before the bird flu of ya and the jhad. BTW there is still no cure for this one as far as I can tell but it seems to be under controll for the moment. Feel good about it? I still don't but what can you do...

Stats and Information
Last updated 5/30/2003

This began when I couldn’t find any graphs about the spread of SARS and decided to pull some together myself. In addition I am old enough to remember all the stages of disinformation that spread around about aids including when it was officially know as “Gay Cancer”. So with my spreadsheet of stats and some internet research I have pulled together this page of the most reliable information I can find. I am not a medical doctor, nor am I a member of any medical organization. At best I am an unbiased, interested individual, with good statistical skills. At worse I am using incorrect information that I believe to be reliable, and drawing incorrect conclusions based on that data. I will include links to all the information I have used so you can draw your own conclusions.

The Basics:

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a respiratory illness that begins with a fever greater than 100.4°F. Other symptoms may include headache, an overall feeling of discomfort, body aches, and mild respiratory symptoms. After 2 to 7 days, SARS patients may develop a dry cough and have trouble breathing. Scientists have detected a previously unrecognized coronavirus in patients with SARS; currently this is the leading hypothesis for the cause of SARS. SARS appears to spread by close person-to-person contact, touching the skin of other people or objects that are contaminated with infectious droplets and then touching your eyes, nose, or mouth. It also is possible that SARS can spread more broadly through the air or by other ways that are currently not known.

My Charts: Last updated 5/30/2003

This set of charts is based upon the WHO “Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome” reports. Unless otherwise noted, the report totals have been used in order to give a clearer picture of SARS as a global disease. These reports are updated every weekday other than Sunday. Rather than having gaps in the data or artificially averaging results I have chosen to comb the data from the previous day over into the day with no data.

My inferences on the graph data:

Total Cases: No conclusions other than the obvious upward trend and the flatting in the growth rate for the past two weeks.

Cases Recovered %: The trend had been holding around 46% till around 5/15 when it started trending upward rapidly, currently over 60%.

Cases Fatal %: Other than short plateaus in the data it has been trending upward consistently to it’s current level of 9%

Total Cases, Rate of Change %: This graph represents the daily growth rate of the total cases. It has been computed on a 7 day averaged window in order to take into consideration the lack of data on Sunday and to represent the overall trend better. Growth rates in April have had plateaus around 3% and 4%, this month we have seen a smooth trend downward to its current plateau of around 0.5%

My personal conclusions:

Changes in the overall numbers this month have been dramatic vs. last month. Rate of cases recovered has broken out of its long term trend of around 46% with a rapid upward trend surpassing 60%. Growth rate of the disease has fallen from its past 4% level to less than 1%. Obviously these numbers represent a tremendous change in the disease overall if they continue. The only negative trend in the overall numbers is the continuous increase of the fatality rate, currently over 9%.

Looking quickly at these numbers it would appear that SARS was at least in the process of being contained. I would point out SARS is a brand new disease that has no known cure and is currently fatal to 9% of anyone that catches it. The main reason for the world wide growth rate to drop is the colossal efforts by china to control the spread of SARS. (Face masks, disinfection of walls and streets, etc.) Recently both Taiwan and Canada have had day to day growth rates in the 5-10% range. I would hardly consider this to be contained.

With the exception of Canada and America, the bulk of SARS cases are in areas thought of as Asian or oriental. This has lead to 2 interesting reactions to the SARS epidemic. Firstly is the “it’s not happening here, it’s not happening” reaction. This is the focus of most of the “SARS contained” reports I have seen, and it makes no sense. As a disease, it will spread, there are local chains of infection in areas outside of china, and it is unclear if it can spread before there are any obvious symptoms.

Secondly are people boycotting Chinatowns, Chinese restaurants, sushi bars and other assorted “Asian” establishments due to fears of catching SARS. The thought is, if any though is put into this, that the person delivering your Chinese food or working at the Laundromat obviously has the $1500 for the single round trip ticket to swing by Hong Kong anytime they want, so keep clear of them. If you believe in this logic it would make much more sense to boycott your community’s business district, as these are the people that rack up all the frequent flyer miles.

So what can you do? Well other than running around 7/24 with a face mask on, (there is no evidence that this would do any good anyway) wash your hands more often and keep them out of your eyes nose and mouth. Surfaces are the most likely way you are going to come into contact with SARS. More importantly keep well informed, and help others in that respect. Fears of SARS should not become another excuse for people to treat each other badly, nor keep you shut in your house. Live your life with your eyes open.

-Roblem

Links:

CDC: Basic SARS info
WHO: Sars main page
WHO: Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (reports archive)
LaTimes:A plea for careful SARS coverage